Carlos Blanco's A Time to Talk, released on June 3

Rise and walk

Please! I'm begging you. Just to know what to expect. It is well known that you work wonders; recently, the country witnessed the Feeding of the 5,000 (prison gang leaders), and it is also known that although you have not walked on water yet, you have transformed into 140 characters on Twitter when you send your parables to those who stretch them merciless. You have transmuted into voice: you no longer are, but you speak; and occasionally you are reincarnated in the Commander to pretend that you are who you were but no longer will.

The country is being witness of a colossal simulation: a president that leads, rules, manages and speaks. There is no such thing. Apart from the gravity that they assume and mitigate every time he talks a piece of nonsense applauded by the Knights of the Oval Table, the national certainty is that a ghost is stalking Venezuela's presidency; the ghost of Communism and its look-alike, the Caudillo. There is no exercise of government; there is no leader analyzing anything, reading and discussing recommendations, listening to alternatives from his ministers, modulating public policies, but a train at cruising speed on automatic pilot, which is running on two rails that lead it to the station called The Disaster, in Sabaneta (Chávez' birthplace). The President governs as long as his health condition allows him to entrench himself in the desk the meeting room of the Council of Ministers has turned into; from there he utters insults and sarcasms, occasionally interrupted by an instruction. The act of ruling used to be a show; now it is increasingly similar to its intermissions.

TEMPTATIONS OF ABSENCE.  The disappearance of the presidential exercise in the praxis has triggered a dynamics of faking and surreptitiousness to pretend that he was; is. Machineries that call for not only Plan B, but C and D, up to Z, have been put into motion.

A few months ago, the author of these lines wrote that a Constitutional reform was in the making. Two are the purposes of that reform that is already studied; albeit not decided: first, arranging presidential succession, in the event that Chávez is reelected and cannot go on, so that it is not necessary to convene new elections within the first four years of the constitutional term and the vice-president can assume as president. The second purpose is eliminating obstacles for a relative of the incumbent to be named vice-president. These plans are not decided yet, but they have been analyzed, and some are tempted to smuggle them into a broader Constitutional amendment or reform, on the pretext of simplifying and updating the Constitution. It looks grotesque and sounds impossible, but you have to be on the alert, because they have already hinted that they might disguise their purposes under the Draft Law on Missions that (opposition) Primero Justicia (party) has promoted and that they want to use as an excuse for the new Constitutional botch.

The other temptation is not to let Henrique Capriles to be active as a candidate by annulling him on the street. Provoking violence in his personal appearances and then accusing him of being responsible for the events is the preferred strategy, not because the government's strategists believe that this maneuver is very clever, but because the intention is to make him disappear from the streets. The administration's intention is for Capriles not to make more personal appearances in Caracas and they are willing to repeat the incident that already happened. It would be prudent for the democratic candidate to take some measures without giving up talking face to face with the people, which is precisely what the regime wants.

JUST IN CASE THAT LAZARUS DOES NOT STAND UP. If the Caudillo cannot run for the presidential election, there are two options: a replacement candidate anointed by Chávez, to whom he can transfer his last mandate; and the other if the first one does not work consists of provoking political turmoil so that a "state of emergency" is declared that should make it necessary to suspend the presidential election.

In this last case, it is believed, rightly so, that the chaos could be a fertile soil for those that call the shots to continue doing it, because they have the weapons and the money, whereas the democratic society does not. They can miscalculate, because when societies are mobilized, they are not easily stopped and military can play a risky arbitral role; however, that is guessing.

It is true that talks are taking place behind the scene; rapprochements to know the others' terrain. In a relatively sensitive world in which forces are more or less balanced, an understanding should impose; however, although some are aware of the situation on the ruling side, they do not dare take concrete steps out of fear that the Queen might order "Off with their heads!!!"

THE OTHER INGREDIENT. Fraud, electoral opportunism and intimidation. The latter is widely documented by merely looking outside; turning on TV or listening to the background noise of a regime that is tightening bolts everywhere. Likewise, it suffices to know that some businessmen have received the kind visit of members of the regime to inform them that any contribution to the opposition candidate will be considered "sponsoring terrorism."

The electoral affair per se is the most important factor. Despite the fact that Vicente Díaz, member of the National Electoral Council (CNE) board, with unusual smugness tried to underplay concerns expressed by qualified technicians and experts, it cannot be denied that there are serious problems. Fortunately, in recent days an opinion matrix has been generated, on which leaders, experts and opinion leaders agree. It should not be forgotten that the immaculate CNE has not presented hundreds of minutes of 2007 Constitutional Referendum; it should not be forgotten both that integration between the fingerprint scanner and the voting machine is an attempt to intimidate and that independent international observers are not allowed to participate. And what about the Electoral Roll? No comments.

INCREASING VOTES. Against this background, one has to be prepared to counteract antidemocratic actions. It is essential to increase Capriles' votes. As long as Capriles becomes the symbol of an avalanche for change, the force to stop violent purposes and permanence desires of the regime will grow. Capriles is the instrument the opposition society has chosen to provoke a change.

If you like the candidate, vote for him. If you do not like the candidate, also vote for him. You have to try for him to win, even in spite of the sectarianism that surrounds him. In fact, it does not matter if Capriles wants to have you on his side; vote for him and look for votes for him so that you are able to contribute to an irreversible change. If Capriles gets the votes, they will hand over power, for good, or better.

Twitter: @carlosblancog

Translated by Álix Hernández