A Time to Talk, released on January 29

Alliances and armistices

The opposition primary election has taken the fast track. The list of candidates decreased and speculations increased. Nobody will betray unity and everybody that has been part of this peculiar campaign will support the winner. There is no doubt about this. However, this does not mean that everybody has the same enthusiasm or that those who support one of the candidates will surely follow the winner. But, on the other hand, many citizens (hundreds of thousands? millions?), who will not vote in the primary election, either out of fear or indifference toward the name of the candidate, will certainly vote on October 7.

Even though it is desirable that people vote massively in February 12 primaries, the final number should not be a reason for concern. Only opposition leaders have spread around that vote secrecy is guaranteed, but the government and its CNE (electoral board) keep silent so that the threat continues to hover as a toxic cloud over the citizens' will. This storyteller has learnt of conservative estimates that put the number of voters over 1 million-1.5 million, which, while it is below the potential number, it would be a sample of the most radical sector, along with political parties and the most organized citizens' groups. This can vary in the case of an environment that is not still envisaged, but that could be hastened by the whirl. Involving the government's election ministry in the primary election has been a mistake, but that's how things are.

THE AGREEMENTS. Some candidates have withdrawn because the expected support did not materialize, like in the cases of A. Ledezma and O. Álvarez Paz; because participation requirements were not met, like happened with C. Sosa; or because the campaign did not advance well, as the case of L. López appears to be. This withdrawal has left a mark. López had talked with María Corina (Machado) and other candidates seeking some kind of agreement and an understanding with H. Capriles did not look possible due to past brotherly quarrels. His long walk from Primero Justicia to Primero Justicia was not foreseeable. However, it comes now as an alliance that will undoubtedly favor Capriles but will weaken the option that López insisted in representing, particularly considering that in the recent debate, López acted as a candidate even though he had already agreed to abandon the race. It is still to know if this option was discussed inside Voluntad Popular (López' party) through a democratic mechanism.

However, this understanding is characteristic of normal election processes, although it did not look possible considering that López had said that he would stay until the end. The alliance has been criticized as an understanding of "the right," although it could be attributed an ideological but a pragmatic, very pragmatic, perspective.

PABLO, ON THE WAY TO DAMASCUS. Pablo Pérez, in turn, represents the most organized party that undoubtedly counts on a solid support in the Zulia fortress. He is a simple and kind man strongly committed with decentralization, which has become his campaign flag. He has been a victim of a ruthless campaign by the regime; something that apparently affects him, perhaps because he was not expecting such a dirty war.

His electoral problems are basically two. The first one refers to the way how he became a candidate, due to M. Rosales', his mentor, hesitation. The fact that he was "discovered" by Rosales rather than being the result of his party's deliberations has damaged him. The outcome would not have been different, but the former governor's attempt to present himself as the big elector certainly damaged the chosen one. The second problem refers to how AD and Copei (parties) backed him. Nobody questions the right of parties to support whomever they decide or a candidate's right to accept this support, but the way in which this was done looked as if they have appropriated of the candidate; without underestimating how the regime has presented AD and Copei as the sole representation of a reprehensible past.

DIEGO. Diego Arria has been a factor of innovation in the campaign. He has offered not more and not less than a change of regime through his proposal to convene a Constituent Assembly for the society to assume total power and change the composition of the branches of power. His proposal has looked reasonable to many who are wondering how an eventual opposition president would act amid officials engaged in sabotaging his or her administration. Arria provides a response underpinned by him having reported Chávez to the International Court of Justice in The Hague. However, Diego has shaken the electoral scene and has won some support, but he does not look like being interested in responding to the programmatic dimension of change. This stance has left him without the support of those who want (true or imaginary) solutions to the current chaos, which will surely continue even though the present administration is defeated. Diego has become a reference that points out a few problems that the opposition leaders recognize and plays the role of exposing them.

Pablo Medina follows a similar trend, although with a less elaborated discourse. His candidacy represents the plurality effort that the Democratic Unity Panel (MUD) has facilitated and that is a virtue that balances some of its defects.

THERE COMES MARÍA. María Corina's candidacy is swimming against the tide. She has had to overcome many obstacles: the idea of her being a posh girl who has taken a fancy to politics; prejudice against women, a large part of which comes from women engaged in the public arena; the limitation of being independent in front of candidacies backed by political parties, such as Capriles', Pérez' and López'; accusations of belonging to the elite; and maneuvers by pollsters managed by individuals that belong to the campaign commands of her adversaries. Thanks to her personal and moral courage and to her principles, and by risking presenting a proposal that makes no concession to Chavezism, she has become the opposition's main leader, although this condition not necessarily may lead her to victory. Vis-à-vis those who say "she's the best, but I don't vote for her, because she isn't going to win," an essential change has begun to happen when voters understand that they have to vote for the most suitable candidate and support the one that is elected. Regardless of the fact that the winner is not the candidate you prefer, you have to vote in February 12 primaries for the most suitable individual. No wonder she has been attacked by F. Castro and J.V. Rangel.
The truth is that to defeat Chávez, a candidate cannot offer what he offers with more resources and less scruples; only the offer of banishing the regime makes the difference, and may mean victory. At least the victory that prevents another Chávez from returning in the future.

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