09 de marzo de 2017 08:33 AM
Actualizado el 09 de marzo de 2017 08:42 AM
In month-on-month terms, inflation shows an important deceleration, falling to 13.4% from 14.5% in December and a peak of 19.5% in August, said on Monday think tank Torino Capital.
According to the economists in their weekly report, the deceleration observed in the monthly rate during these two months was likely caused by the crisis in the payments system generated by the government’s currency substitution initiative.
“Month-on-month liquidity and monetary base growth in fact declined significantly in December and January, and the parallel market rate is in fact still now lower than it was at the end of November, when it reached 4538 VEF/USD,” they reasoned.
Moreover, Torino Capital estimated a hike in the inflation rate in January to 423% from 400% in December. In any case, they reckoned, “despite the deceleration in the monthly rate, we have raised our 2017 inflation forecast to 338% (from 309% in our previous report) given the lack of changes in FX policy, as we believe that sustained overvaluation will require increased rates of money creation to fill the fiscal gap.”