Academic survey: Venezuela is no longer a youthful nation

Venezuela is no longer a predominantly young country and is undergoing an aging process affecting the voting population (over 18) and the composition of the Voters' Roll to be used for presidential elections to be held on October 7 and regional elections on December 16. This is the conclusion of a team of academics and researchers of the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), members of an initiative named "2012 Presidential Electoral Monitor."

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Going through changes

According to a report labeled "Demographic Consistency of the Electoral Register" prepared as part of the electoral monitoring activity, "changes in the age structure, resulting from the demographic transition process, are evidenced in shifts within the population pyramid."

The analysis conducted by Andrés Bello Catholic University explains that in 1961 (see related graph) the population pyramid base was large whereas the higher part was quite thin; this means that most of the population (46%) was relatively young.

The researchers claim that this distribution left behind a collective notion that "Venezuela is a young country," yet reality begs to differ as the country is heading in the opposite direction, a trend that will carry on into the future.

Also, results indicate that significant changes have taken place in the components of the population's long-term dynamics thus affecting the Electoral Register. One of the most important changes has been the leverage of the population over eighteen resulting from the shift in its composition caused by lower fecundity over recent decades.
To analyze the Electoral Register to be used in the upcoming elections, the research team set out to examine the trend of aging voting population compared with the demographic growth of potential voters (over 18) and changes in the age structure stemming from the demographic transition that the country is currently undergoing.

The report on Demographic Consistency clarifies that the population located outside Venezuela is not part of the research "given the unreliable nature of data on the migration of Venezuelans and their low percentage in the electoral register (100,945 voters represent only 0.52% of the 2012 Electoral Registry)."

An established trend

This study specifies that the Venezuelan population is showing an aging trend expected to carry on into the future.

Population estimates show that by 2040 the pyramid will become more rectangular, that is, the ratio of people at employment age continues to grow; however, as a result of demographic inertia and greater life expectancy, older adults are beginning to be more prevalent in the population while younger people, as a result of lower fertility, will be less relevant in the overall population," reads to the report (see related graph).

According to Andrés Bello Catholic University researchers, the fact that 96% of Venezuelans over 18 are registered to vote on October 7, " is significant but (...) it should be noted that it is not at an outstanding level given that the continent has countries like Costa Rica (2009) which records 95%, Peru (2011) also at 95% and Mexico (2012) at 94%."

Translated by Félix Rojas Alva