Barclays: Venezuela shifts to a balance of payment crisis
Venezuela's total amount of US dollars likely to hit their lowest level since 2005
Barclays claims that the gap between the official forex rate (VEB 6.30) and the forex parallel rate is 600% roughly, therefore progressively leading to a crisis in the balance of payments.
It adds that if the Government insists on selling US dollars without taking into account supply and demand, rationing of US dollars would continue.
Venezuela's international liquid reserves have fallen some 26% this year. Barclays estimates that reserves will continue dropping along with the rest of the funds in US dollars managed in the country.
As a result, Venezuela's total amount of foreign currency in 2013 might end below USD 50 billion, that is, the lowest level since 2005, even if taking into consideration the downfall experienced in 2009, when oil prices plummeted amid the world crisis.
Around 1.5 million Venezuelans have decided to emigrate in search of a better future for their families. The figure accounts to between 4% and 6% of the overall population. Approximately 88% of these expatriates have made up their mind to emigrate over the last 15 years.