Barclays: Venezuela shifts to a balance of payment crisis
Venezuela's total amount of US dollars likely to hit their lowest level since 2005
Barclays claims that the gap between the official forex rate (VEB 6.30) and the forex parallel rate is 600% roughly, therefore progressively leading to a crisis in the balance of payments.
It adds that if the Government insists on selling US dollars without taking into account supply and demand, rationing of US dollars would continue.
Venezuela's international liquid reserves have fallen some 26% this year. Barclays estimates that reserves will continue dropping along with the rest of the funds in US dollars managed in the country.
As a result, Venezuela's total amount of foreign currency in 2013 might end below USD 50 billion, that is, the lowest level since 2005, even if taking into consideration the downfall experienced in 2009, when oil prices plummeted amid the world crisis.
A shipment of over 30,000 tons of phosphate arrived at Puerto Cabello port in late July on board the Shi Long Ling, a Chinese-flagged vessel that began its long journey in northern Africa. The cargo boat docked on July 26 after traveling more than 3,200 nautical miles. Undoubtedly, this would just be considered one in many cargo ships crisscrossing the oceans if it were not for the fact that Venezuela has denounced Western Sahara occupation by Morocco and yet purchases the territory's natural resource products from the occupying power.