Drop in the supply of US dollars lashes Venezuela's imports
Fiscal and foreign exchange imbalances make things more difficult
No increase in the supply of US dollars to the Venezuelan private sector was reported in the first three quarters of 2012. The operation, which is usually conducted through the central bank via the Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (Cadivi), had to be executed through another mechanism, the Transaction System for Foreign Currency Denominated Securities (Sitme) so that the sector could carry out its respective imports in a year of high sustained consumption stimulated by public expenditure.
However, Sitme's US dollar supply has been cut, a fact that may lead to further shortage in 2013 considering that companies are suffering reductions in their stocks.
When contrasting the amount of US dollars approved by the central bank, the allocations to Cadivi, and the imports of the private sector, one realizes that companies only receive via Sitme, 30% of the total amount of US dollars they require to make their purchases abroad.
From January-September this year, the central bank approved USD 26.2 billion for imports in the private sector and the public, to a lesser extent. Thus, US dollar supply plunged 3.6% with respect to the same period in 2011.
As bond sales increase, Finance Minister Jorge Giordani seeks to stop bond issue to feed Sitme. The size of the State's debt continues growing rapidly and public accounting presents strong imbalances that make the authorities consider devaluation of the currency to obtain more bolívares (Venezuela's currency) per each petrodollar.
Although devaluation will be beneficial for public accounting, it will increase the price of imported products and, therefore, it will bring purchasing power down.
A simple reason: there is oil galore, would suffice to explain Guyana's actions. Another explanation lies in the little or none efforts made by the Venezuelan government to thwart the move by the Guyanese. This is certainly not a new problem, but a problem only recently highlighted because oil is involved. But what other resources does the disputed area hold? For most of us it is a section on the map with black and white stripes on it, a depiction of something distant, alien, a nothingness not worth paying much attention to in geography classes back in elementary school.