Think tank Ecoanalítica forecasts 46.5% devaluation in Venezuela in 2013
A possible devaluation will generate USD 19.56 billion to the Venezuelan government
Think tank Ecoanalítica forecasts devaluation by 46.5% for 2013. Based on its estimates, current foreign exchange of VEB 4.30 per US dollar will go to VEB 6.30 per USD. The increase in the foreign exchange rate would generate incomes amounting to USD 19.56 billion in one year, since the government would get more Venezuelan bolivars per petrodollar.
Currently, the Venezuelan fiscal deficit amounts to 15% of GDP or USD 40 billion. The devaluation would partiality reduce fiscal deficit. However, devaluation would also entail inflationary pressure, which the government would have to tackle by adjusting the prices of controlled products.
Private imports will also be hit if devaluation is implemented in 2013, since the exchange rate of foreign currency bought through the Transaction System for Foreign Currency Denominated Securities (Sitme) may grow from VEB 5.30 to VEB 7.10 per US dollar, according to Ecoanalítica estimates.
Translated by Andreína Trujillo
President Nicolás Maduro is not only the heir to the throne, but also to an economic crisis which demanded urgent measures to rectify the course. The crisis showed up in two aspects: a 50% inflation estimate, and shortage of staples ranging between 70% and 98%. These issues might hit the President's poor popularity; considering his feeble electoral victory of 1% over his challenger.