The Venezuelan government has tried to give people multiple explanations of the upcoming electricity collapse. The menu includes, among others, El Niño climate phenomenon; disinvestment in the electricity area ascribed to the "Fourth Republic" or "sabotage" in powerhouses perpetrated by opposing coupsters, and imperialism.

As a matter of fact, the shock is near at hand and there is not diagnosis of why we get at these extreme events. Nor there is a future project set to free new generations from the ordeal nowadays undergone by the country.

First and foremost, in the field of power supply, past governments bet on the Guri hydroelectric system towards the domestic future development with four large dams. Seventy percent of the domestic power generation focused on this compound.

While the development of alternative energy sources was not foreseen, huge development plans in the mining and metallurgical areas were made in River Caroní basin. This turned out to affect local water resources. In the case of Guri, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the basin have been more harmful than El Niño.

Sure enough, this development scheme was born under the governments of the democratic era, but it was welcome and has been worked in depth by the 11-year-old government of President Hugo Chávez.

For Professor Alexander Luzardo, co-author of the Environment Law, the Guri plight means the decline of the modernity project that started in the sixties. At that time, the Guri dam was envisaged, including huge investments in the area based on the availability of large water resources.

The plan included the development of a metallurgical industry which would be expanded by mining and completed with a city like Ciudad Guayana, under a blueprint similar to that of Brasilia.

The projects were premised on "development poles."

The development-like project
Despite wording where terms such as "endogenous" or "sustainable" abound, the expansion and population policy in River Caroní basin took root under President Chávez's government. One of the emblematic examples was the decree on mining exploitation in the Imataca forest reserve.

Another case was the continuation and laying of an electricity grid from Guri to Brazil through the Imataca reserve and Canaima National Park. The project was inaugurated in August 2000 by Brazilian President Jose Inázio Lula da Silva and his Venezuelan counterpart. Fidel Castro attended the ceremony.

In addition, the governmental appeal to organize mining cooperatives significantly increased small-scale and illegal mining throughout the basin, where about 30,000 miners, mostly Brazilians, Colombians and Guyanese, work. Later on, in an attempt at reversing the trend and containing the wave of miners, Jaqueline Farías, the then Environment Minister, encouraged mining reconversion. The plan, aimed at taking miners to alternative sustainably economic activities, failed.

Environmental damages
In the opinion of Lelys Bravo, a researcher with Simón Bolívar University, and some members of the scientific team who has delved into biodiversity of River Caroní basin, the intervention suffered by the Gran Sabana has disturbed the basin water cycle.

According to the researcher, while El Niño has adversely affected climate and the rate of rains in the region, the most serious effects come from deforestation, mining and frequent fires in the savannah. Bravo explained that the studies headed by Eugenio Sanhueza, of the Venezuelan Scientific Research Institute (IVIC), found that a burnt area in that region takes three or four years to go back to normal.

She stressed the importance of protecting tepuys (table-top mountains) as these are related to the volume of rains.

As for Luzardo, the electrical grid disrupted the landscape of eastern tepuys; made an unnecessary environmental impact on a national park and natural monuments; caused damages in the site, and resulted in clashes and division of the Pemon people. In addition, there were economic troubles, because the promises of future benefits never materialized.

No plans
Were the effects of El Niño on River Caroní basin predictable? Absolutely. Not only Venezuelan scientists warned against the drought, but also some State agencies were aware of what could happen. Note that in 1988 and 1992, there were more severe droughts as a result of El Niño. All in all, the Guri dam withstood its battering.

No matter the environmental aspect, the government did not make plans for alternative electricity development. More than USD 500 million were sent abroad to fund powerhouses in Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti and Honduras. Today, small gasoil-fueled powerhouses are being installed in Venezuela. As noted by some experts, this equipment, in addition to being highly pollutant, will not help solve the electricity plight if the water level at the Guri dam fails to recover in the short term.
folivares@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado