Western Hemisphere
Command, saying or reflection, the message of Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez to "officers and the whole people" to "prepare for war" resounded in the war drums in front of Bogotá, in the latest chapter of a long history of disagreements between Venezuela and Colombia, which started with the deployment of US troops to Colombian military bases.

In March 2008, the Venezuelan president ordered the "immediate" mobilization of 10 tank battalions to the border, as well as deployment of the military aviation, following the Colombian army raid on a camp of Raúl Reyes, the leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), located in Ecuadorian territory.

Defeating the enemy?
Analysts and militaries of both countries agree on saying that Venezuela is far from winning a conventional war with Colombia, not only because the government of Colombian President Álvaro Uribe count on the US support, but also because the Venezuelan army is significantly smaller, less trained, with no experience at all in combat and "deeply at odds on the appropriateness of a military adventure," said General Juan Herrera Betancourt, ex commander of the Armored Division.

Following the recent purchases, which total USD 4.4 billion and include 24 Sukhoi-53 fighters; 53 transportation and assault helicopters; 100,000 AK-103 rifles and a short and medium-range M1-Tor anti-air system, Venezuela could have air superiority, in addition to more naval and tank power.

However, retired Rear Admiral César Manzano, a former Venezuelan advisor at the United Nations, warned that the "purchase of armament in countries, such as Russia, China and Belarus, which are far away not only geographically but from the operational view, puts Venezuela in a disadvantageous position."

Even Colombian security analyst José Marulanda disclosed to Colombian daily newspaper El Comercio, "if (Chávez's government) deploys the Sukhoi planes in an air raid on Colombia, they would be detected at once by US radars located in Aruba, which would share the information with Colombia."

"Another point to be considered is the moral of the national armed forces," Herrera stressed. "In order to go to the war, one has to be convinced that the country was offended. Have we been offended by Colombia or the United States? No."

Militias in fourth generation
For General Alberto Müller Rojas, ex Chief of Staff, the "high military tension" on the Colombian-Venezuelan border "is already a war, construed as fourth-generation. Chávez did not refer to a conventional war, because Venezuela's military do not act outside the borders. It is a fourth-generation war, made with militias, paramilitaries, special force. Today, small groups terrify people and develop a belligerent action not in the physical space, but in people's minds. What is to be conquered is essentially psychological; the point at issue is to spread terror, and he, who manages to terrify the most, will master the scenario."

So, Müller Rojas advocates deployment of the Bases for Peace by the Venezuelan government, as "they have a highly psychological content."

Latent danger
In the opinion of Retired Colonel José Antonio Omaña, an expert in military intelligence, nor shall Venezuela acquit itself well in a fourth-generation war, considering that militias are not organized or have not received the necessary combat training in order to learn individual tactics, use of arms and teamwork.

"Whoever heading for such conflicts is a very proficient, highly skilled and physically trained man, able to skirmish and take the enemy by surprise. The idea both of the conventional war and the fourth-generation war is just a fantasy, yet dangerous. Military forces who reinforce security on the border could, for any reason, unleash a skirmish impossible to control."
mdespinoza@eluniversal.com

Translated by Conchita Delgado

María Daniela Espinoza
EL UNIVERSAL