In the opinion of Luis Vicente León, director of pollster Datanálisis, the opposition has the chance to withhold, in the election of November 23rd for state governments and mayoralties, "trophies" such as Zulia and Nueva Esparta governments. And the states of Carabobo and Sucre could be added. This accounts for a landslide, no matter the small amount compared with the state governments in the hands of President Hugo Chávez's followers.

León fears that government defectors will not win all the constituencies, where they are competing.

These political scenarios for 2008-2010 were provided by León during a forum hosted by Softline. Also there, economists José Grasso Vecchio, Miguel Octavio and José Guerra took the floor to talk about issues related to economy and finance.

According to the pollster, to date, the position of both the government and the opposition has been increasing by a similar percentage. However, considering the complex makeup of the opposition, each step forward on the dissent means overcoming a major obstacle. In his view, the opposition just now started doing the right thing to garner votes. Nevertheless, in the political field there is still nobody as charming as the head of state.

He insisted on saying that the fight is focused on the election corridor represented by Caracas, Miranda, Aragua, Carabobo, Lara, Zulia, Táchira and Anzoátegui. While refusing to anticipate any results, León did forecast that in the event of Chávez winning most of the votes, he will propose again his reelection in another constitutional referendum. Otherwise, should the opposition win, there would be political radicalization and Chávez would try to "kick the table."

Not the same endorsement
León made a distinction between popularity and confidence. He noted that while the president is still very popular, people's trust in him is not enough to amass votes for his local candidates. For that reason, said the analyst, Chávez has taken a more radical stance in his speeches and tries to turn the election into a plebiscite.

He broke down the variables that make up the president's popularity, i.e.: charisma, efficiency, populism, ideology and nationalism, and explained that they complement each other. The expert lamented that Venezuelans "let them be bought" with public money. However, he warned, "purchased love is finite." He added that the proposed radical ideology is much rejected.

While the institutional character sustains other presidents, popularity levers Chávez up. Losing it would expose him to a "brutal risk," and he will do anything to preserve it.

In his view, Chávez's main weakness occurred on January 2008; therefore, he changed his mind with the Bolivarian curriculum and the Law on Intelligence and Counterintelligence, also known as the "spying law" or "toad law."

Translated by Conchita Delgado