NORMA JIMÉNEZ MONTEALEGRE
Eluniversal.com

As the election for president is less than six weeks away, political expert and journalist Ricardo Sucre assessed the scenario, including electioneering, strengths and weaknesses of the two major candidates.

Q: How do you assess the rallies of President Hugo Chávez and single opposition candidate Manuel Rosales? What are the strengths and weaknesses of each campaign?

HUGO CHÁVEZ' CAMPAIGN
Sucre considers that so far, the main proposal of the candidate for re-election is focused on turning Venezuelan into a superpower. That means weapons, oil, money and global influence. "His speech is centered on what I call dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez-like values -a powerful, nationalist country."

The expert noted lack of proposals in the domestic area. "I do not see his campaign focused on what is going on in Venezuela, but abroad."

In addition, Sucre thinks that there is lack of consistence due to changing slogans. "From the 'ten million' (votes), they went to the 'brave people.' Now, they want to introduce the statesman, the international leader."

MANUEL ROSALES' CAMPAIGN
In the expert's opinion, the proposal of the single opposition candidate is just the other way around, as it is focused on the domestic field. "They are day to day, domestic issues, including insecurity, unemployment, and housing. That is, national matters."

He noted that the discussion around the proposal of the "Mi Negra" debit card has boiled down to whether it is or not populist. "The actual meaning of this proposal, that is, let individuals make their own decision, has not been analyzed in depth."

Sucre made a philosophic distinction between the two wordings. "In the president's speeches, he or the State is always the centerpiece. Society is an appendage, a needed subject. In Rosales' case, the wording is just the opposite; it is focused on the inside; it puts individuals as decision-makers; it is very liberal, but it does not look like that though."

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES- HUGO CHÁVEZ
Sucre identified three assets and three shortcomings in Chávez. His main strength is that so far, he is top in the opinion polls. Additionally, being in office provides him advantages concerning use of funding, logistics and capabilities, among others.

The expert considered that some personal features benefit Chávez, such as discipline and stamina, but he has lost many that used to be attractive.

As for shortcomings, "while he occupies the first place in the surveys so far, the assessment of his environment is very poor." The expert referred to a survey managed by the Government itself showing a negative assessment of both the Executive Power and the national state of affairs.

Government itself is the second weakness. "Tiredness, weariness can be noted. Things are not working. No housing is gotten; insecurity continues; there is high staff turnover. That is, in a certain way, the government is unskilled."

As a third negative factor, "the president's belligerent character will add points up from a particular group of voters, but I wonder if this could be attractive for the whole nation."

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES - MANUEL ROSALES
In Sucre's view, in the face of the poor assessment of Chávez' government, the governor of western Zulia state can boast about his rule. His personality also favors him. "He is someone with a good sense of proportions; he is really a stable, even-tempered person. This contrasts somewhat with current political excesses. I think that this could be an asset, first of all for ni-ni or indecisive voters."

The expert thinks also that Rosales can grow in the electoral field. "He has yet lot of room to grow. He is well known, but not so known in many areas. He has room to expand, unlike the president, who has always a 50-percent band."

As for weaknesses, Sucre reckoned, Rosales "does not exploit what it is inside him." In the opinion of the political analyst, "he is a peculiar case, as it seems that he does not trust himself. While he has plenty to offer, he shows just few things about him."

The expert considers that Rosales has failed to frame contents in his government program and they are somewhat disperse. "His offers have a significant conceptual and philosophical potential, but he does not maximize it either."

Sucre fears that a certain conformism prevailing in the country could endanger Rosales. "We, Venezuelans, have become a very acquiescent, faint-hearted society. It may be that, while many people do not like this Government, they end up by voting Rosales or abstaining because of convenience."

Q: Some surveys found that at this present time, Manuel Rosales's candidacy is on the rise and President Chávez' candidacy came to a standstill. Do you think that by December 3rd, the numbers will be more similar between the two of them?

A: "Yes, it is possible," Sucre answered. In his view, the outcome will depend on the campaigns development. "Theoretically, in electoral terms, it is possible."

Translated by Conchita Delgado
cdelgado@eluniversal.com