Q: Venezuela on Saturday received a shipment of 30,000 Kalashnikov rifles from Russia as part of what the Chavez government says is an effort to modernize its military. Do Venezuela's military purchases threaten stability in the region, as Washington claims? What capability does Venezuela have to project its military?

A: Board Comment: Diego Arria:
"The purchase threatens mainly the Venezuelans that oppose the Chavez regime. The total acquisition amounts to 100,000 rifles. Venezuela does not have that number of regular soldiers, but Chavez has announced his decision to arm his political party's growing militia. Venezuela does not have any capacity whatsoever to project its military outside of its borders. It has not fought any battles since the first decade of the 20th century?when machetes were used?and in recent years the military has been more engaged in performing as the president's praetorian guard and assuming important and lucrative government positions than in modernizing Venezuela's forces. In fact, Venezuela is today the most militarized government on the continent. It is absurd to imagine that in a scenario of modern warfare any serious military officer could argue that they could defend their territory with these rifles. Only Venezuelan officers that have never ever been close to an armed conflict would make such a statement. But attention should be paid to the final destination of the weapons, as well as of those to be replaced. In the recent past, Colombian authorities have found Venezuela army rifles in the FARC'S hands."

Diego Arria is a a member of the Advisor board, Director of the Columbus Group, and a former Venezuelan Ambassador to the United Nations.

A: Guest Comment: Bernardo Alvarez: "Venezuela is in the process of modernizing its military forces, a project focused around allowing the country to better protect its borders and defend its people. At the heart of the modernization plan?which is long overdue?is the purchase of personal weapons, transport planes, and patrol boats from Russia, Brazil, and Spain. This plan does not threaten regional stability, as the Bush administration has facetiously claimed. If anything, it seeks to promote stability along the Venezuelan-Colombian border and in the country's coastal waters by preventing traffickers and criminals from operating in and around Venezuela. In early May, Colombian Foreign Minister Carolina Barco verified that her government saw no threat in the purchases, calling them a 'closed issue.' A number of defense analysts have said the same, including Tom Baranauskas, a Latin America analyst at Forecast International Inc., who noted that 'what's being procured right now isn't offensive.' The Bush administration has chosen to focus on Venezuela's military spending for reasons that are entirely political and represent a continuation of their attempts to isolate and discredit the government of President Hugo Chavez. Interestingly, Venezuela actually spends less on its military than some of its regional neighbors?Caracas put in $1.4 billion in 2005 while Argentina spent $1.7 billion, Mexico $3.1 billion, Chile $3.8 billion and Brazil $13.2 billion."

Bernardo Alvarez is Venezuela's Ambassador to the United States.

A: Guest Comment: Gabriel Marcella: "Venezuela has little capacity to project conventional military power and some of its equipment needs modernization. The purchase of some 100,000 Kalashnikovs, scheduled to arrive in three installments this year, must be seen in the context of Chavez's expansive ambitions in foreign policy and his overall strategy of permanent confrontation with the US. These arms, to include the promised arrival of high performance Sukhoi combat aircraft, would not be a concern if Chavez were willing to cooperate with the US and other countries in the battle against terrorism and narcotics trafficking, and if he did not have security ties with Cuba and Iran, and the cozy relationship with the FARC. Moreover, it's difficult to see what possible foreign threat the Sukhois could meet. For these reasons Washington halted the sale of replacement parts for the Venezuelan air force. Chavez's motives in this expensive game are many. He wants to play a greater regional and global role, weaken military ties with the US, and develop flexible options for the future. At the same time, his political style requires portraying the US as the enemy. Russian arms merchants and others are only too happy to compete for Venezuelan money."

Gabriel Marcella is Director of Third World Studies at the US Army War College.

A: Guest Comment: Javier Corrales: "The Venezuelan case brings to light a problem in the Inter-American security system: the lack of an acceptable protocol for handling weapons modernization. Venezuela, like all countries, has every right to modernize its military. Sooner or later, all Latin American countries will undertake similar processes. The key immediate problem is not the origin of the weapons, but the fate of old weapons. Venezuela is purchasing as many as 100,000 new rifles. But it only has 40,000 troops. What will happen to the replaced and extra rifles? At the moment, there is no hemispheric-wide agreement on a procedure for upgrading weapons without undermining the security, both of neighboring countries and citizens. Weapons modernization can occur without shattering security, but this requires taking verifiable steps to prevent existing stocks of weapons from remaining in use or ending in the wrong hands (criminals, insurgents, international markets, paramilitaries, corrupt generals). International oversight of these processes is necessary. The hemispheric community should take this opportunity to discuss how to improve rules governing programs of weapons modernization."

Javier Corrales is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Amherst College.