Michael Rowan
Special for El Universal

The pattern of Latin American economies, in the words of Nobel laureate Douglass North in "Understanding the Process of Economic Change," is one of disorder and then recovery to temporary stable order and then revolution followed by prolonged disorder. There was no shared belief system about the role of government, the state, corporations, and citizenship. There was, however, a common set of beliefs built on personal exchange and relationships of power that undercut the construction of institutions of impersonal exchange - the rule of law.

Plunder and power is the legacy of Spain to Latin America. Establishing control is an end in itself, thus creating authoritarian regimes whose only real goal is extending personal political power. Systemic corruption is the price paid for monopoly control, and poverty is ironically its added value. The Chavez war against the United States is a war against federalism, democracy, limited government, thriving markets and economic growth shared by the population. The Pyrrhic victories in that war - witness Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia - are stop-and-go development, fragile democratic institutions, a weak foundation for citizen rights, personal exchanges, black markets, insecurity, poverty and monopolized markets. These victories are proffered as solutions and grand achievements.

Venezuela is suffering from the powerful consequences of the path dependent results of colonial inheritance, the institutions of slavery and serfdom, and the encomienda and caudillo systems. So the choice is not between Chavez and neoliberalism, the old oligarchy, or George W. Bush; but between path dependence on failure versus striking out on a new path for national success. Because of its oil wealth, Venezuela can defeat poverty, de-monopolize the state, reduce corruption and join the First World of nations in one presidential term. This is the choice in the 2006 presidential campaign - if the courage exists to offer it as an alternative. It is a choice of what kind of nation Venezuelans want, a fundamental choice that they have never been given. Who, pray tell, will offer it?
mrowan@cantv.net

Michael Rowan's column is published every Tuesday