Michael Rowan
Special for El Universal

The cardinal difference between Chavez and the opposition is that Chavez has a strategy and the opposition does not. The strategy of Chavez is to conquer the oligarchic enemy by whatever means are available. In this sense there is no difference between his failed coup attempt and his nine election victories since 1998: both are means to the same end, a revolution of words. Chavez thinks in military terms such as war, battles, weapons and pre-emptive strikes. The enemy will be suppressed when all independent institutions and persons surrender unconditionally, and when enemy assembly, speech and thought are controlled -and there will be no talk of reconciliation or amnesty until then. The tools at his disposal include a dependent petro-state culture, abundant oil money and a gift for propaganda that are unparalleled in the developing world. Chavez will be no more measured by the disappearance of poverty, his stated intention, than the Soviet Union was by the disappearance of the state, its stated intention. His revolutionary talk about poverty is just that, and his strategy is to give the poor more handouts than anybody has before, thus keeping them forever growing in size and dependent upon him.

Chavez did not invent this strategy, but inherited it from the dictators of the past and the Adecos since nationalization of oil in 1976. The government, military, and political culture of Venezuela were ripe for such demagoguery draped in uniform. Official lying about the failure of Venezuela in terms of the population standard of living, which has been continuous since 1980, is the sea upon which the Chavez ship of state floats. In this sense, no opposition to Chavez has yet emerged.

In 1998, the opposition was stunned when Chavez leaped from 4% to 56% of the vote in six months and now, six years and eight lost election battles later, is still stunned. The reason is simple. The opposition has no strategy, message, or point. It has not apologized for its past failure, or provided a credible vision for future success. The opposition is against Chavez, but not for anything else. What strategy is revealed by the Carmona episode, the national strike, or the recall referendum? The effort to wrest power from Chavez is not a strategy, but solid evidence that none exists.

mrowan@cantv.net